Financial Prediction and Effective Investment
Use Cases for Markets and Investment
Prevention is less costly than treatment, and starting in 2023 we can begin preventing large-scale financial crises, rather than treating them as they occur. This means:
- Recommending methods of correcting for bubbles
- Recognizing red flags early, in the market and individual companies
- Building and improving reputations as stable and innovative partners
- Guidance for investment decisions with bias reduction and deep analysis
- Futureproofing of products and services from conception to deployment and beyond
Superforecasting with Scalable Intelligence
Q4 of 2022 has provided no shortage of examples where financial predictions have fallen short, with trillions of dollars in wealth erased, the collapse of FTX, and mass layoffs from many tech companies. Those are all just the immediate consequences of long-term failures, with high interest rates, inflation, and potential recessions looming in their wake.
In many ways, the status quo for investing is just as bad, if not worse, with 90% of Startups, and 75% of VC-backed Startups failing. 42% of those who fail create products nobody wants, and 40% of those who remain never turn a profit. If only 25% of VC-backed Startups succeed, and 40% of those never turn a profit, is that remaining 15% chance of investing effectively acceptable?
Norn systems are designed for scalable human-like intelligence, with the added benefit of substantially reducing bias, to help inform the financial decisions that move markets and bring new companies to life. Markets in our massively interconnected global economy are hyper-complex, as is the task of predicting how new startups may be received by them. Humans can only scratch the surface of that complexity, as the numbers demonstrate, but with Norn, we can do far more.
Though trading algorithms can operate at high speeds while exceeding short-term human prediction, they fail to predict major economic events, because they operate at a limited scope, and absent understanding.
Norn systems can use and augment some of those same narrow AI as tools to evaluate the limited scope in probabilistic terms, but more importantly, they can also examine and dynamically develop their understanding of the big picture, at whatever scale is required. That understanding can be evaluated and refined as each Norn system seeks to reduce bias, helping to make them better superforecasters.
Though classical economic theory, upon which many of the world’s systems are still built, fell upon the sword of believing that humans were rational decision-makers, Norn systems can come much closer to reaching that imagined ideal.
The world can’t afford to continue stumbling blindly into economic crises, nor should it. Neither the investors who risk a 15% chance of success nor the successful 15% of startups who pay for the 85% that failed or floundered through the higher demands placed upon them can afford for this to continue.
Those who merely wish to gamble will find ways to do so, but those who prefer wiser and safer decisions, avoiding crises, collapses, and mass layoffs, will have better options starting in 2023.
For further documentation go to our Documents Page. Additional materials are available by request.